The World Health Organization declared severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) a public health emergency of international concern on January 30, 2020, and a pandemic on March 12, 2020. Ready-to-go spatiotemporal supply and demand data visualization and analytics tools should be advanced for future preparedness and all-hazards disaster response. Nonpharmaceutical public health interventions had greater impact in minimizing preventable deaths during the pandemic than did hospital critical care surge response. Differences in projected versus actual COVID-19 demands were reasonably small over time.Ĭonclusions. The percentages of lives saved from high levels of contact reduction were 1.9 to 4.2 times greater than high levels of hospital surge response. In areas with increased demand, surge response measures could avert 104 120 additional deaths-55% through high clearance of critical care beds and 45% through measures such as greater ventilator access. In March 2020, COVID-19 cases requiring critical care were estimated using an adaptive metapopulation SEIR (susceptible‒exposed‒infectious‒recovered) model for all 3142 US counties for future 21-day and 42-day periods from April 2, 2020, to May 13, 2020, in 4 reactive patterns of contact reduction-0%, 20%, 30%, and 40%-and 4 surge response scenarios-very low, low, medium, and high. To create a tool to rapidly determine where pandemic demand for critical care overwhelms county-level surge capacity and to compare public health and medical responses.
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